China's logistics cost is high and there is a large space for efficiency improvement. In 2020, the scale of intelligent logistics system will reach 100 billion. In 2014, the total logistics cost of China accounted for about 16.6% of GDP of that year, which is twice that of the United States, Japan and other developed countries. There is a large space for efficiency improvement. Intelligent logistics equipment has a long-term objective demand basis.
In 2014, China's intelligent logistics system is about 42.5 billion yuan (including automated stereoscopic warehouse, trolley and AGV, automatic sorting and conveying system, etc.), and is expected to exceed 80 billion yuan by 2020, with a CAGR of about 15%.
Industry driving force: the downstream capital expenditure drives the development of the industry, and the listing of express companies continues to catalyze. In 2015, China's express business volume reached 120 billion pieces, and the CAGR in the past five years exceeded 50%.
The labor cost of express delivery industry accounts for more than 40%, the industry competition is increasingly fierce, and the profit space is suppressed.
Express logistics automation is a breakthrough to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Since the end of 2015, express companies have been intensively landing in the capital market, and capital expenditure will rise sharply, driving the demand for intelligent logistics equipment.
Industry pattern: foreign capital accounts for most of the market share, and there is a certain gap between domestic companies. About two thirds of the domestic market share is occupied by foreign capital, and domestic enterprises have a weak voice. The system integration giants represented by Dafu, St. Phil and dematek occupy the dominant position in the global market. Domestic companies started late, there is still a certain gap.
International experience: the transformation from equipment supplier to integrated general contractor is the only way to be bigger. Combined with the industrial value, growth rate and international experience, we believe that: from the perspective of industrial chain, we are optimistic about core equipment, especially the automated stereoscopic library; from the perspective of business model, we are optimistic about the enterprises with the ability of integrated turnkey design planning and implementation.
Investment suggestion: intelligent logistics equipment enters a rapid development period, and"Recommend cautiously"Rating intelligent logistics equipment has entered a rapid development period. E-commerce express is intensively listed, catalyzing the development of the industry. We are optimistic about core equipment suppliers and system integration contractors. We are optimistic about nori, Huazhong CNC and Tianqi, focusing on Dongfang Jinggong, Shandong Weida, Dongjie intelligent, Yongli, etc.
Risk factors: macroeconomic downturn exceeds expectations, backdoor restructuring, IPO and other suspension!